Description

This analysis provides a forecast of TRB prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-02-02 29.112810 34.651051 40.729359 47.865611 55.983189 64.898232 75.396990
2025-02-09 21.331284 28.760297 37.721658 49.193041 63.341805 80.070635 101.181145
2025-02-16 16.792789 24.980130 35.602624 50.103544 69.060099 92.656113 123.860794
2025-02-23 13.395178 21.755934 33.319059 49.992780 72.867304 102.551799 143.296503
2025-03-02 10.641166 18.796604 30.772920 48.929777 74.937008 109.942341 159.556293
2025-03-09 8.769447 16.746942 29.121622 48.740030 77.920410 118.448583 177.471322
2025-03-16 6.739897 14.023089 26.009464 45.930304 76.739590 120.919334 187.039631
2025-03-23 5.925815 13.197699 25.731607 47.327812 81.722134 132.223932 209.331034
2025-03-30 4.889732 11.755310 24.209440 46.524802 83.194953 138.399019 224.461717
2025-04-06 4.496509 11.470370 24.624920 48.898527 89.722304 152.312612 251.378205
2025-04-13 3.443595 9.609921 21.938448 45.687327 86.985723 151.973317 257.053859
2025-04-20 3.042421 9.069347 21.636392 46.593429 91.016654 162.187977 278.959988
2025-04-27 2.818393 8.959459 22.292103 49.543553 99.119739 179.878735 314.173109
2025-05-04 2.464796 8.463839 22.124303 50.996517 104.851781 194.255985 345.197717
2025-05-11 2.124061 7.904520 21.725944 51.939184 109.713086 207.421867 374.842359
2025-05-18 1.766729 7.187375 20.854942 51.825450 112.616201 217.437957 399.814870
2025-05-25 1.415789 6.363893 19.587144 50.730925 113.578135 224.167895 419.664917
2025-06-01 1.172578 5.788560 18.801457 50.535536 116.169137 233.742334 444.489921
2025-06-08 0.863093 4.843352 16.892502 47.641738 113.281297 233.563810 452.975112
2025-06-15 0.765140 4.647636 16.916944 49.081181 119.020533 248.875029 488.139770
2025-06-22 0.611705 4.150974 16.012856 48.254104 120.102739 255.830238 509.232970
2025-06-29 0.569569 4.127259 16.464658 50.698747 128.054746 275.612616 553.137353
2025-07-06 0.401145 3.399345 14.653965 47.391445 123.715952 272.500550 556.942557